THE DOCKET
US v. Google (Ad Tech): Closing Arguments ScheduledDOJ vs NVIDIA: Subpoenas Issued over GPU AllocationFTC v. Amazon: Discovery Phase OngoingEU DMA: Apple Compliance Investigation ActiveNYT v. OpenAI: Copyright & Training Data Trial
REAL-TIME INTEL
Anti-Trust War Room
Tracking the global regulatory siege on Big Tech. The end of the monopoly era.
Novai Analyst Note
Regulators are fighting a two-front war: dismantling the mobile/search monopolies of the last decade (Google, Apple) while trying to prevent a new 'Compute Cartel' from controlling AI.
The "AI Kill Zone"
The era of the "garage startup" is over.
Modern AI requires billions in compute (GPUs) and massive proprietary datasets—resources only the "Big 6" possess. This has created an "AI Kill Zone": a market dynamic where no independent AI lab can scale without selling equity (and control) to a cloud giant.
The New Playbook
- 01Compute Capture: Invest cloud credits instead of cash to lock startups into infrastructure.
- 02Talent Hoarding: "Acqui-hire" entire teams to bypass merger review.
Historical Precedent
1911
Standard Oil
Broken into 34 companies
Ended the industrial energy monopoly.
1982
AT&T
Broken into Baby Bells
Allowed the internet to exist on phone lines.
2001
Microsoft
Settled
Saved the web browser, enabling Google.
AF
Chair, FTC
Andrew Ferguson
AGENDA: Ending "dubious" consumer cases
GS
AAG, DOJ Antitrust
Gail Slater
AGENDA: Reviewing Google breakup remedies
TR
EVP, EU Commission
Teresa Ribera
AGENDA: Integrating climate into competition
Active Litigation Timeline (2025-2026)
Monopoly Risk Matrix
LIVE RISK ASSESSMENT // UPDATED 1/15/2026
Entity
Risk Level
Score
Primary Threat
Active Cases
Google
GOOGL
CRITICAL
92
Ad Tech Breakup & AI Search Monopoly
4 Cases
Apple
AAPL
HIGH
85
App Store Monopoly & AI Gatekeeping
3 Cases
NVIDIA
NVDA
HIGH
80
GPU Allocation / CUDA Lock-in
2 Cases
Meta
META
HIGH
78
Social Monopoly (Instagram/WhatsApp)
2 Cases
Amazon
AMZN
HIGH
75
E-Commerce Predation & AWS Lock-in
2 Cases
Microsoft
MSFT
MODERATE
65
Cloud Dominance & OpenAI "Capture"
1 Cases
Regulatory Filings & News
Establishing Uplink...